Existential Me

Can Federer win the 2012 Australian Open? That is still a few days out in the realm of possibility, but before he looks forward to a possible championship match, he has one giant hurdle to cross in the form of his nemesis and tormentor-on-the-other-side-of-the-net, Rafael Nadal. So, can Fedex win his semi-final match?

Not unless he:

• goes into the match with an uber-positive attitude. This does not merely mean that he thinks he has a chance to win. Rather, he must believe that he can win, and not just if Rafa has a bad day. He must absolutely believe that he has the game and the athleticism to overcome the barrage that Rafa is going to throw at him. Rafa being Rafa is not going to quit until the last point has been won or lost. He’ll try to keep coming back no matter how many games or sets he has lost.
• hits his backhand deep. All too often, Nadal wins points against Federer by hitting his ferociously top-spinning strokes to the smooth Swiss’ backhand. The extraordinary top-spin with a higher-than-average net clearance imparts additional bounce to the ball, and his left-handed strokes tending to go more to his right-handed opponent’s backhand. The extra bounce doesn’t make it easy to hit a high single-handed backhand, not even to one as gifted as Federer. Thus, it’s of utmost importance that Federer try to hit as many shots as he can to Nadal’s backhand. If he’s pushed, then he should go for a low but deep slice.
• serves well. In almost all matches that he has won against Nadal (not very many, as RF fans will sadly note), his first service percentage has been high. This is easy: the more first serves you put in, the lesser the chances that your opponent is going to hit a whizz-bang return winner.
• pounces on every single breakpoint opportunity. Fed’s breakpoint conversion against Rafa (and also a lot of other top ten players against whom his win-loss record is not so great) is appalling. It’s almost as if he doesn’t know what to do while playing those points, and shanks his shots going for an outright winner when constructing the point as he normally does would do. After all, when you’ve got your opponent down a breakpoint, keeping the ball in play is going to put pressure on him, and you’re essentially asking him to step up and do something remarkable to win the point.
• finishes points and games at the first available opportunity. With a terrific retriever and counter-puncher like Rafa, unless you close out a point decisively, you’re running the risk of letting him play himself back into the rally, commandeering, and then winning the point! Case in point.

In other words, Fed has to go into the match with a precise match plan, and execute it to perfection. In terms of sheer ability, I think RF > RN, but if you bring in mental strength and an all-conquering attitude, RN has proven over and over again that he’s heads and shoulders above.